Parsimonious Explanations

I fear Goofball jumped to a rather hasty conclusion. Over many years of careful observation and interviews with informed parties, I have crafted a theory as to what happens when bears disappear during naps.

Initially, I suspected that the guests were kidnapping the missing bears. However, guests frequently arrive and bears seldom disappear. It is possible that the tendency to walk about with a teddy bear is a stochastic process with a low probability of occurrence. However, I highly suspect there exists heterogeneity in guests. That is, most guests do not walk away with teddy bears, but a particular type of guest is prone to teddy bear acquisition.

The reader might think this theorizing is somewhat odd, but I would like to remind the reader that guests are a theoretical construct for teddy bears. Bears do not observe the behavior of guests since we are napping throughout the event of their visit. Indeed, Harriet's discussion of the guests is our only evidence that the visit occurred. Well, Harriet's discussion and the missing teddy bears.

The question then becomes, what type of guest would walk away with teddy bears? What evidence can we muster to address the question? For starters, what bear was missing? Bear. [Note: We really should come up with better names in the future. Naming a teddy bear Bear is unnecessarily confusing.] What is unique about Bear? He was one of the two bears ready to be sent to new families. Past experience has shown that this is a regular pattern among missing bears. Thus, it is my hypothesis that the guests of interest are the children for whom the teddy bear is intended. Extensive interviews with Harriet confirm that this is the case.

[Editor: Couldn't you have simply asked Harriet in the first place? Why go through all the reasoning?]

I suppose I could have simply asked Harriet, but I would rather exercise my cognitive abilities. There are precious few puzzles to occupy my intellect in this household.

[Editor: I think you just wanted to show off.]

It is conceivable. At this moment, I would like to congratulate Bear on his successful integration into his new family. Good luck, young man. Remember your lessons for they will serve you well.